The latest Mortgage Bankers Association forecast calls for larger-than-expected refinancings in the third quarter, further dampening the overall decline in mortgage origination for the year as a whole.
The latest data from the MBA and NCUA showed that the share of credit unions in first mortgage loans was up slightly from the fourth quarter of 2020, but down sharply from the first quarter.
Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors announced on Tuesday that existing home sales fell 0.9% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.80 million in May, marking the fourth monthly decline. consecutive. However, May sales were 44.6% higher than the previous year.
The MBA forecast, which is not seasonally adjusted, expects purchases in the second quarter to reach $ 460 billion, up 32% from the second quarter of 2020 and 44% from the first quarter of 2021.
NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said the modest drop from April to May puts home sales on track to pre-pandemic levels.
Prices, however, continue to rise beyond previous records as buyers vie for homes that sell quickly, often above the listing price. The median price of existing homes for all housing types in May was $ 350,300, up 23.6% from May 2020. Prices have increased every month since March 2012.
“Lack of inventory continues to be the main factor holding back home sales, but declining affordability is simply pushing some first-time buyers away from the market,” Yun said.
“The outlook for the market is encouraging, however,” he said. “Supply is expected to improve, which will give buyers more options and help lower record asking prices for existing homes.”
The June 18 MBA forecast made no change from its May 19 forecast in its expectations for purchase mortgage issuance up 15.6% to $ 1.66 trillion this year , followed by increases of 5.1% in 2022 and 2% in 2023.
But the Washington, DC-based group increased its third-quarter refinancing estimate by 27%. As a result, he said he now expects third-quarter refinances to be $ 300 billion, more than the $ 276 billion in the third quarter of 2019, but still well below the 658 billion. billion dollars in the third quarter of 2020.
The change in the third quarter means refinancing operations will amount to $ 1.81 trillion for the year, down 24% from 2020. However, in January, the MBA said it was expected refinancing to fall about 47% this year.
Total purchases and refinances are now expected at $ 3,470 billion this year, down nearly 10% from 2020, but not bad from a record year in 2020 and better than the 24% drop from the MBA was scheduled for January.
NCUA data released this month showed first credit union mortgages amounted to $ 74.6 billion in the three months ending March 31, up 49.5 percent from report in the first quarter of 2020. All lenders’ amounts nearly doubled to $ 1.09 trillion.
Credit unions accounted for 6.8% of first mortgage originations among all lenders in the first quarter, down from 6.4% in the fourth quarter, but down from 8.9% in the first quarter of 2020.
The 10 largest credit union originators in the first quarter produced $ 16.8 billion in first mortgage loans, up 47.4% from the first quarter of 2020. They accounted for 16% of assets credit unions and 23% of first mortgage arrangements. The top 10 were:
1. Federal Navy Credit Union, Vienna, Virginia ($ 144.5 billion in assets, 10.3 million members) recorded $ 5.9 billion in first mortgage originations, up 18.4%.
2. PenFed Credit Union, Tysons, Va. ($ 27.3 billion, $ 2.2 million) had first mortgage loan origins of $ 2.7 billion, nearly three times more than $ 965.5 million in the first quarter from 2020.
3. The Lake Michigan Credit Union, Grand Rapids, Michigan ($ 10 billion, 406,861) had first mortgage installments of $ 1.6 billion, up 52.8%.
4. The Star One Credit Union, Sunnyvale, Calif. ($ 10.5 billion, 114,286) had first mortgage originations of $ 1.4 billion, a four-fold increase from $ 331.3 million in the first quarter of 2020.
5. People’s Fund for State Employees, Raleigh, North Carolina ($ 49.6 billion, $ 2.6 million) had first mortgage loan installments of $ 913.5 million, down 1.5%.
6. SchoolsFirst Federal Credit Union, Santa Ana, Calif. ($ 25.3 billion, 1.2 million) recorded $ 888 million in first-time mortgage loans, up 4.6%.
7. The Federal First Tech Credit Union, San Jose, Calif. ($ 14.1 billion, 630,286) had first mortgage originations of $ 873.6 million, up 34.8%.
8. Idaho Central Credit Union, Chubbuck, Idaho ($ 7.3 billion, 444,065) had first mortgage loan origins of $ 872.1 million, up 95%.
9. The OnPoint Community Credit Union, Portland, Ore. ($ 8.2 billion, 432,553) recorded first mortgage originations of $ 854.2 million, up 73.2%.
10. BECU, Tukwila, Wash. ($ 28.2 billion, $ 1.3 million) had first mortgage originations of $ 809.7 million, up 8.6%.